From: Leon Hader
Sent: Thursday, April 25, 2002 12:54 AM
To: Nick Denton
Subject: The Western Wall, etc.

Nick, The idea of "separation" makes a lot of sense. Camp David II 
demonstrated that the Israelis and the Palestinians are residing in separate 
universes, dreaming different dreams, that they lack the common political, if 
not "civilizational" ground that makes a viable agreement possible (Israelis 
want a "normal" Hebrew-speaking America, globalized, etc. Palestinians are 
still in an early stages of national development, etc.). What we need a 
"Cyprus solution" (we haven't had peace on that island for two decades or 
more. But, hey, people are not dying). But here are the problems which you 
haven't touched upon: 1. Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Gaza. Get 
rid of them? Annex them? 2. There is large Palestinian-Arab minority in 
Israel, close to 20 percent of the population, with a strong ethnic/national 
identity, with ties to the Palestinians in the West Bank and elsewhere. It 
will be difficult to separate them from their brethren, and they (Arabs, in 
fact, are a majority in the Galilee) could try to secede. 3. Jerusalem? 
First, there are quite a lot of Arab in the areas annexed to Israel, and, 
second, there are those holy places, the Vatican, the Moslem world, etc. 4. 
And, most important, Berlin Wall worked not because there was a wall, but 
because there was a military balance of power that permitted it to stand 
(same applies to Cyprus, Turkish/Greek militaries). The point is: you need a 
recognized and effective military power in the West Bank (and Gaza) to 
maintain order and prevent anti-Israeli terrorism. Otherwise, there WILL be 
terrorist act, and Israel would be forced to reenter the West Bank, and we 
are back at square one. So ... my solution is a return to the old "Jordanian 
option," that is, get Jordan back to the West Bank and Gaza on an interim 
basis (Jordan can sell it to the Arabs as the freeing of the Palestinians 
from Israeli occupation, and indicate that she would stay there, until the 
Palestinians are ready for independence, blah, blah...). Israel withdraws 
(including settlements) in exchange for security guarantees from the 
Jordanians (that would have to be accepted by any Palestinian authority). The 
Moslem holy places could be under control of a Jordanian-Moslem authority. 
The final status of Jerusalem would be determined when Israel and an 
independent Palestinian entity (after many years under Jordanian occupation) 
make peace. Israel and Jordan can work out some form of a common 
market/NAFTA, which would control also tourism and visits, etc. In any case, 
I do think that a division of the West Bank between Israel and Jordan will 
probably take place under a scenario of U.S. attack against Iraq. If Saddam 
fires missiles on Tel Aviv, and there are many Israeli casualties, the 
Israelis will probably enter the West Bank and "finish the job," which could 
mean a rerun of 1947-8, and a division of the area between the Israelis and 
the Palestinians. No, I don't want that to happen!!! But as things look now, 
this worst-case-scenario seems quite plausible to me. In any case, you have a 
nice blog. Keep up the good work. Leon